Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills overcame a first-half Hail Mary touchdown throw by Aaron Rodgers to outlast the New York Jets 23-20 on Monday night and take control of the AFC East.
Allen threw two touchdown passes and ran for another score and Tyler Bass made up for an earlier miss by kicking a go-ahead 22-yard field goal with 3:43 left to help the Bills (4-2) snap a two-game skid. They have never lost three straight with Allen starting at quarterback.
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Yet, the Bills lost back-to-back games to the Baltimore Ravens, 35-10, in Week 4 and the Houston Texans, 23-20, in Week 5. Plus, the betting market usually backs teams getting a Dead Cat Bounce, which is slang for a team being motivated after their coach gets canned. More importantly, NYJ has one of the best defenses in the league and talented offensive personnel.
So, why is Buffalo the favorite here? Well, instead of making myself crazy by trying to reverse-engineer the spread, I’ll just fade the Jets. As I prefaced in my Circa Million VI picks for NFL Week 6, the Jets are a stupid organization making stupid decisions. The Bills have been a Super Bowl contender for years with a proven head coach and top-three quarterback.
Despite the Jets putting together one of their best offensive games of the season, unfocused and undisciplined play — evident in nearly a dozen penalties enforced — and a pair of doinked field goals prevented New York from edging past the Buffalo Bills on Monday night in the coaching debut of Jeff Ulbrich.
The Jets got the ball with 3:43 left to play in the game, with the chance to lead a potential game-winning drive. Instead, a drive marred by penalties and an eventual Aaron Rodgers interception helped seal Buffalo’s 23-20 victory.
The loss was the third in a row for the Jets (2-4), who capped a tumultuous week during which coach Robert Saleh was fired, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich replaced him as the interim coach and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was demoted from play-calling duties in favor of Todd Downing.
Greg Zuerlein, usually a reliable kicker, missed two potential go-ahead field goals for the Jets, hitting the left upright on both attempts. The game was also filled with penalty flags all night – each team had 11.
The Jets had got in an early rhythm on offense with Downing calling the plays as Rodgers got New York into the red zone. A drop by Hall on third down made the Jets settle for a 34-yard field goal by Zuerlein – New York’s first points on an opening drive this season.
The offense under new play caller Todd Downing did indeed show improvement; the Jets posted 124 yards of total offense in the first quarter, the most they had generated in any game since 2022. They finished the game with 393, 7 yards shy of their highest total of the season. Their first touchdown of the game, a 5-yard pass in the first quarter to receiver Garrett Wilson, snapped a streak of 25 drives that had started in their own territory to end without a touchdown. By the middle of the third quarter, the Jets had posted six plays of 20 or more yards. By the end of the game, that number was up to eight.
The Buffalo Bills came into MetLife Stadium on Monday and left with a 23-20 victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in an ugly game that featured missed kicks, a seemingly endless supply of penalty flags and key mistakes from New York down the stretch.
The end result was a third straight loss for the Jets, who fell to 2-4 overall and 0-1 since firing Saleh as their head coach.
Buffalo snapped its own two-game losing streak and improved to 4-2 on the campaign by surviving a contest that featured an unbelievable 22 accepted penalties for 204 yards. Fortunately for the visitors, there was no flag on Rodgers’ final throw of the game, which was an underthrown attempt to a slipping Mike Williams that was intercepted by Taron Johnson.
Buffalo bounced back by running all over New York’s defense, gashing Ulbrich’s unit for 61 yards rushing – including 48 on six carries by Davis – and capping the Bills’ opening drive with a one-yard keeper by Allen to make it 7-3. Allen’s 56th career TD run put him one behind OJ Simpson for second in franchise history.
Garrett Wilson gave the Jets back the lead on their next drive, capping things by catching a five-yard pass from Rodgers in the back of the end zone and getting both feet down on a play that was initially ruled incomplete but reversed on video replay before Ulbrich needed to challenge.
Allen then led the Bills on a 90-yard drive to give Buffalo back the lead, capped by an eight-yard TD pass to Mack Hollins. Quinnen Williams got his hand on Bass’ extra point try that sailed wide left. Allen sparked the drive when he danced out of the end zone, scrambled to his right and threw across his body down the middle of the field where Davis got his hands on the ball, bobbled it and came down with it for a 42-yard catch. Allen’s second touchdown pass was a 12-yard throw to Dawson Knox with 21 seconds remaining before half-time to put Buffalo up 20-10.
But the first-half scoring wasn’t over. Rodgers’s deep throw on the final play of the half had the Jets, their fans – and social media – buzzing. With the Jets at their own 48 and perhaps hoping to get into field-goal range before half-time, Rodgers took a few steps back and danced around before launching the ball toward the end zone. Allen Lazard reached up in front of two Bills defenders and fell on his back. After a quick huddle, officials ruled it a touchdown and the score was 20-17 to the Bills heading into the second-half.
Still, some of New York’s issues under Saleh remained. Penalties, many ill-timed, and lack of focus often derailed drives and — in one pivotal case — took a touchdown off the board.
Late in the third quarter, on New York’s seventh offensive possession, Rodgers found Wilson for a pair of nice gains, including a 23-yard scamper on a crossing route. The Jets then marched inside the 5-yard line, when running back Braelon Allen pushed through the Bills defense for what would’ve been a 4-yard touchdown rush; a holding penalty nullified the score. On the following play, Wilson had a would-be touchdown knocked out of his hands with a big hit. On the play following that one, kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a 32-yard field goal.
Bass missed another kick on Buffalo’s opening drive of the second half on a windy night, pushing a 47-yarder wide right. Zuerlein then tied it at 20-20 with a 22-yarder midway through the third quarter.
The Jets appeared to take the lead late on their next possession when Braelon Allen ran up the middle from four yards out, but left tackle Tyron Smith was called for holding. Rodgers connected with Wilson in the back of the end zone on the next play, but the wide receiver couldn’t hold on to the ball after being walloped by Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp.
Zuerlein then hit the left upright on a 32-yard attempt to keep the game tied. He also missed a potential go-ahead 43-yarder with 9:44 left in the fourth quarter, hitting the upright again.
With the Jets trailing 23-20 late, Rodgers threw deep for Mike Williams but the pass was short and Taron Johnson – back after breaking his forearm in the season opener – came up with the interception. Allen and the Bills were able to then run out the clock and seal the win. They are the only team in the division with a winning record.
Allen finished 19 of 25 for 215 yards. Rookie Ray Davis, filling in for the injured James Cook, ran for 97 yards on 20 carries and caught three passes for 55 yards. Rodgers was 23 of 35 for 294 yards with two touchdowns and the interception, and Breece Hall had 113 yards rushing and 56 receiving.
Meanwhile, the Bills would’ve been in a Super Bowl recently if it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes and head coach Sean McDermott deserves credit for Josh Allen becoming an MVP contender. People are ripping McDermott’s decision-making at the end of that Houston game. Those people are speaking out of both sides of their mouths.
In one breath, they knock Bengals head coach Zac Taylor for calling three runs in Cincinnati’s overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. In the next breath, McDermott is dumb for dialing up three pass plays when Buffalo was backed up against its goal line. Both things can’t be true, and I like McDermott’s decision to put the ball in Allen’s hands at the end of the game.
